WEATHER NEWS: Tropical Storm Nicole forecasts city by city
Tropical Storm Nicole has intensified into a tempest with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. It is expected to make landfall along the southeast coast of Florida sometime Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Nicole is forecast to reach hurricane strength before landfall, but regardless of the storm’s exact ferocity, Nicole’s large size will spark a dangerous storm surge along the U.S. Southeast coast and heavy rainfall all the way to Maine.
Nearly all of the East Coast should see some impacts from Nicole, and conditions in Florida will continue to deteriorate, with hurricane conditions expected Wednesday evening. Impacts from the large and quick-moving tropical storm will spread into the Southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday, with the storm likely to be clear of the United States as fast as Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane warnings have been posted from Jupiter, Fla., to just north of Daytona Beach. Cities under the warning include West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, and Melbourne. To the north, tropical storm warnings have been issued as far north as Brunswick, Ga.; warnings also extend south to Hollywood, Fla. Tropical storm watches are in effect down south toward Miami as well as for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast that are still recovering from Hurricane Ian. Tropical storm watches extend as far north as Murphy Island, S.C.
Here is a look at the forecast for several cities in Florida and beyond.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale area
While the storm’s core is expected to make landfall to the north of Miami, the city is still expected to see some impacts from Nicole.
A tropical storm watch and a flood watch have been issued for the coastal city, which was largely spared from significant impacts from Hurricane Ian. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center says winds are likely to remain below sustained tropical-storm-force strength (39 mph), but a shift south in Nicole’s track could bring tropical-storm-force conditions with sustained winds up to 57 mph into the city proper.
A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible in surge-prone areas, while 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected to fall across the area. Spots that receive heavy rainfall could see significant flooding, especially in low-lying, oft-flooded locations.
Melbourne is likely to see significant impact from Nicole, with landfall expected south of the city around Port St. Lucie. As such, the city has been placed under a hurricane warning, with storm conditions worsening during the day Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday.
According to the National Hurricane Center, residents of Melbourne should be expecting sustained tropical-storm-force winds up to 55 miles per hour, with gusts up to 80 mph. However, locals should prepare for wind speeds up to 73 miles per hour, the equivalent of a storm on the edge of becoming a Category 1 hurricane.
Nicole is expected to bring with it a “life-threatening” storm surge of 3 to 5 feet from North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, Ga., enough to cause damage and force thousands of evacuations. In Melbourne proper, just a foot of storm surge is expected. Rainfall-wise, the latest forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of potentially flooding rainfall as well as isolated tornadoes.
11/8 | Heads up east central Florida! A Flood Watch will be in effect starting Wednesday 7:00 AM EST through Thursday 1:00 PM EST. Rainfall amounts of 4-6″ with locally higher amounts of 8″ along the coast and 2-4″ with locally higher amounts across the interior will be possible. pic.twitter.com/5468kzhtE1
Rivers and tributaries in and around Orlando are still seeing significant flooding more than a month after Hurricane Ian passed through the Central Florida region, so rainfall from Nicole is the biggest concern for the area.
Orlando has been placed under a tropical storm warning and a flood watch, with tropical storm conditions expected to last until midday Thursday. Wind speeds are expected to be sustained at 45 to 55 mph, with occasional gusts up to 75 mph, enough to cause significant wind damage and power outages. There is also the potential for sustained winds to be higher, peaking just below hurricane force at 73 mph.
The city is currently forecast to see 2-4 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible. Rivers and tributaries, especially the St. Johns River, may overflow their banks and spark evacuations. Isolated weak tornadoes will also be possible.
Tampa has been placed under a tropical storm warning, with showers and storms from Nicole forecast to start hitting the city by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Nicole may end up passing near or over Tampa, and the storm could emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and regain or maintain strength before making a second landfall in the Florida Peninsula, prompting storm surge warnings north of Clearwater to St. James Island, Fla.
Regardless of whether Nicole reemerges into the gulf, Tampa will see similar conditions. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to begin early Thursday morning, with sustained winds likely staying at or below 40 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, residents should plan for the possibility of strong tropical storm-force winds up to 73 mph, though, as there remains some uncertainty in Nicole’s strength and track.
In the surge-prone city, 1-3 feet of storm surge is possible, meaning some coastal locations may see minor inundation. On top of the storm surge, a general 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible, with localized higher amounts.
Tropical-storm conditions will begin early Thursday morning as Nicole makes a quick turn toward the east, bringing with it sustained winds of 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts reaching up to 50 mph. Uncertainty in exactly how strong Nicole will be and where it will track means that the National Hurricane Center is asking residents to plan for strong tropical-storm-force winds of up to 73 mph, though.
A significant storm surge of 3-5 feet is expected in the city, and the surge may be impactful all the way through Friday evening. In addition to the dangerous surge, 2-4 inches of rainfall is possible, with higher amounts likely in isolated spots. Conditions are also favorable for tornadoes, which could cause additional isolated damage.
Sustained tropical-storm-force winds are possible but not currently forecast beginning Friday morning, with the National Hurricane Center warning locals to prepare for wind speeds up to 57 miles per hour. A significant storm surge is also forecast, with surge-vulnerable spots forecast to see 2 to 4 feet of ocean inundation.
Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be in the range of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Nicole will be weakening as it tracks rapidly toward the northeast, bringing with it the threat of isolated tornadoes in and around the city.
Heavy rainfall associated with the weakening Nicole will make their way into the Raleigh-Durham area by Thursday night, leading to a wet and breezy Veterans Day. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be around 1 to 2 inches, with isolated heavier amounts possible.
Tropical-storm-force winds are not out of the question, but the odds are low. The most recent forecast from the National Hurricane Center places the chance of seeing sustained tropical storm-force winds at less than 20 percent.
Nicole has already been bringing impacts to East Coast beach towns like Virginia Beach, where a high surf advisory is in effect through Wednesday night. Later in the week, the only impact the city should really see is a wet Veterans Day, with Nicole forecast to bring up to an inch or less of rain.
The remnants of quick-moving Nicole will douse the National Capital Region in showers and thunderstorms on Veterans Day, though exactly how much remains a point of contention, with model runs oscillating and Nicole’s exact track through the Northeast — or maybe as far west as the spine of the Appalachians, unclear.
In general, locations in the greater Washington area can expect 1 to 3 inches of rain, with a greater chance of more rain toward the mountains, with the possibility for isolated severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday afternoon, a threat which will move northward with Nicole over the course of the day. Gusty winds embedded within storms could cause isolated tree damage and power outages.
Heavy rain associated with the remnants of Nicole will push into the New York City area during the day Friday, with the heaviest rainfall expected toward the tail end of the day into early Saturday morning.
Up to 3 inches of rainfall could fall in and around the Big Apple, with gusty winds also possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms could strike during the afternoon into the evening as well.
Nicole will not spare Boston, with heavy rain expected to move into the city by late Friday afternoon. Heavy rain with gusts up to 40 miles per hour is likely to fall into the city Friday night, with the rainfall coming to a close by midday as Nicole continues moving rapidly northeastward.
After Boston, the remnants of Nicole will track into Maine and Atlantic Canada, where heavy rainfall and gusty winds will also be in the forecast into the weekend — with northern portions of Newfoundland and Labrador even expected to see some modest snowfall.